Interesting thread.
It boils down to supply and demand. The supply of traffic is nowhere near the demands of the programs. Unfortunately all thoughts are based on all affiliate programs being all created equally, when they most definately are not. Some programs truly put new time, money and resources into creating new content, new tools, etc to increase (or hold on to) their market share. I would love to see someone post a list of the sites and programs that have been on autopilot for years. Programs that because of timing and age would never need to release a single new concept, site or take on a new affiliate. The smell of old internet porn money must be a wonderful thing
My guess is in the next 2 years the amount of total adult programs will double, with most selling well package non-exclusive content. Competition will be fierce, and only those with an established market share and deep pockets will make it through. The programs that seem to fair the best are the ones that understand the exact formula to best monetize the traffic.... which is on the border of being cleaver / and finding out exactly what shennanigans affiliates are ok with in regards to their traffic.
Ultra niche programs will fair the best, or mega programs that have been around since the golden age of internet porn. There will be many more new threats along the lines of Zango because the desperation will be there from new programs with nothing to lose. Many programs will go through the same thing that happened in the mainstream porn DVD world (and continues to happen).... complete market saturation. Only the strong will survive. And big programs will continue to swallow up the small programs, even just for their traffic.
I can see things getting MUCH more competitve. How about affiliate credit for: cross sales, upsells, exit sales, member rejoins, etc? Unfortunately the most of the success programs at that point will be the ones that can make all those claims, not follow through with them, and still leave their affiliates smiling.
Just a possible direction the business could take in the new few years, and all reliant on the fact that most programs CANNOT generate enough in house traffic to stay afloat
