A student of biology, I'm pretty certain it's urine.
The female urethra starts at the urinary bladder, and continues directly to the external meatus (the exit hole) without interruption by any adjoining tube. So, if it's coming out of the urethra, it came from the urinary bladder - no physical way around that.
As far as the vaginal tip: the muscle contortions in orgasm are an evolved development that generally do the biological duty of pushing liquid and material further up into the cervix and uterus... not the other way around.
Of course, there are always mutations - but I doubt they'd be as widespread as the industry paints it.
Couple all that with the fact that I've heard plenty of production-side peeps talk about squirting as being piss as a matter of fact... and you have my thoughts on the subject.
It's a fun idea... but I think it's more myth than anything.
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-D.
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