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I think I would make an option that has "Government". .XXX can cause trouble, so can 2257. But I still think there are other areas out there that the government can target that hasn't been thought of.
For instance, some congressmen want a law that requires all social networking sites to verify age. It's not inconceivable that they would put adult in that realm someday. It also isn't inconceivable that they would start making obscenity convictions and scaring the fuck out of webmasters. While 2257 and .XXX is a problem, the government as a whole is the biggest threat to the industry, and American webmasters.
As for the others:
Visa - While this would be a huge blow, I think the industry would adjust. Whether people have to go through third party systems like what most people did with gambling, people will find a way to get their porn. It would signifigantly hurt sales and weed out some of the smaller people, but the industry would survive and adjust. Companies like PureVanilla would make a mint.
Spyware/Adware - I think this is bad, but I also think we are closing in on a breaking point with this stuff. I think we'll see tougher legislation on this (much like we saw with spam) and more accountability from sponsors. Spyware hurts conversion rates, and affiliates who have bad conversion rates will move to companies that don't support spyware and have higher conversion rates. While it's bad and fucks over a lot of people, I think it will even itself out eventually. However, it could get much worse before it does.
Free Content - I don't see this as a threat. It's just like music, TV shows, etc. They are giving them out for free and still thriving. The key will be innovation and I think the sites that offer something fresh and exciting will be the ones that survive. Whether it's live shows, exclusive content, etc, the free content craze will weed out the small programs that have complete shit content.
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