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We have perhaps 3 more years of consolidation - businesses buying up smaller businesses - and then most of those enlarged businesses will fall apart, having been expanded in too many directions and/or beyond the abilities of their owners to operate them successfully.
Within 10 years there will be 3 tiers in this business. The top tier will be made up initially of maybe 5 corporate-style businesses: AEBN might make this tier, otherwise I think they will be operators new to online porn or presently only on the periphery. Some or all of these newcomers may buy their way in via some of the failing/stagnant businesses I mentioned in para one.
Tier two, probably in real terms operating at about the same size as our biggest sponsors today, will likely be around 20 companies. They will include some of today's "names", but also some newcomers. Very few of the people behind the big programs today, will survive the next decade, even if their businesses still exist at the end of it.
Tier three will be everyone else, from webmasters to service providers. It will become increasingly difficult to make more than pocket money as an individual and the next 5 years in particular will be hard for everyone.
However, once we are fully out of the "wild west" phase and begin our third decade, I think we shall see major growth for the industry as a whole. The law will begin to catch up with the realities of the internet. The large companies will be operating according to higher standards and demand them from anyone who wishes to work with them. The scams and frauds will likely never go away, but as the industry grows, they will become largely an irrelevance on the sidelines.
The numbers and timelines are guesswork, but basically I'm just describing the phases through which every new industry goes. Needless to say, many will imagine we shall prove to be unique. I guess anything is possible, but most people of that opinion will likely be the ones who get left behind.
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