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Short answer no, long answer yes with a but:
Fred Thompson has a real problem. The public has a hard time seperating "Fred" from the character he played on Law and Order. In the L&O universe, he was very conservative and very direct. In real life, Fred's views aren't exactly the same as the character he played.
If the election was right now today, before the voting public gets a better chance to know this guy, then yes, he would have a chance. But over time, he will be shown to be a little too little for the conservative base, and the public will stop loving the TV character and start thinking about who this guy really is.
The only way he is the next POTUS is if they restart the West Wing series.
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