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kane · 11-02-2007, 05:01 PM

I predict a nice little recession in the next 1.5-2 years, unless something is done.

Here is why I say that:

The US dollar is on the decline. There are good and bad things about this, but more bad than good and the strength of our dollar is a nice indicator as to the strength of our economy.

The housing market is in a dive and will most likely hit free fall status in the next 1-1.5 years as all of these sub prime and variable rate mortgages lose their locked in rate. the payments will jump up and people will have to dump the houses or have them foreclosed on because they can't afford them anymore.

The price of oil and gas continues to stay high and there is no relief anywhere in site.

Our middle class is being slowly destroyed by companies taking their good paying manufacturing jobs overseas. These are jobs that anyone with a high school diploma can get and after a few years they make enough money to have a house and a family and live a decent middle class life. These jobs are disappearing and the jobs that are replacing them are either lower paying service and retail industry jobs or they are higher end tech jobs that require some schooling to get. This means that Joe Bob loses his $24 an hour manufacturing job and can either get a $12 an retail/service job or go back to school. Either way financial hardship is on his and his family's horizon.

They can't cut interest rates to artificially inflate the housing market again so some of the tricks the government would normally have up its sleeve are gone.

You factor all of these together and it doesn't look good. Everything is cyclical and eventually we will pull out of it and markets will correct, but it could be a bump ride for some people.

11-02-2007, 05:01 PM
kane Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: portland, OR Posts: 20,684	I predict a nice little recession in the next 1.5-2 years, unless something is done. Here is why I say that: The US dollar is on the decline. There are good and bad things about this, but more bad than good and the strength of our dollar is a nice indicator as to the strength of our economy. The housing market is in a dive and will most likely hit free fall status in the next 1-1.5 years as all of these sub prime and variable rate mortgages lose their locked in rate. the payments will jump up and people will have to dump the houses or have them foreclosed on because they can't afford them anymore. The price of oil and gas continues to stay high and there is no relief anywhere in site. Our middle class is being slowly destroyed by companies taking their good paying manufacturing jobs overseas. These are jobs that anyone with a high school diploma can get and after a few years they make enough money to have a house and a family and live a decent middle class life. These jobs are disappearing and the jobs that are replacing them are either lower paying service and retail industry jobs or they are higher end tech jobs that require some schooling to get. This means that Joe Bob loses his $24 an hour manufacturing job and can either get a $12 an retail/service job or go back to school. Either way financial hardship is on his and his family's horizon. They can't cut interest rates to artificially inflate the housing market again so some of the tricks the government would normally have up its sleeve are gone. You factor all of these together and it doesn't look good. Everything is cyclical and eventually we will pull out of it and markets will correct, but it could be a bump ride for some people.