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IMO there hasn't been a lot technology growth in many years. The few things that porn has adapted to over the last couple years was stuff like rss feeds and cell phone porn, etc.. Nothing ground breaking. Its been a long time since porn has invented or innovated something.
I also don't see a lot of new programs starting daily. The pie isn't being cut up by new competition (new sites) it is being cut up by thieves (spyware and content theft.) I think if anything there has been a slowing down process of new companies starting over the last 6 months to a year and I think this trend will continue. The easiest sites to create are pictures and videos. Most people who start these sites either shoot content or buy bulk non exclusive content. These types of sites are the ones that are getting harder and harder to sell. People trying to get these types of sites started now will have a much higher fail rate, and others thinking about trying might not as they see others failing my often.
I agree with more consolidations and smaller companies just closing up. As the market gets more competitive bigger companies will buy more market share by buying smaller companies or they will merge with companies that allow them to diversify or grow vertically, like you see with NATS / SEGPAY or AFF / CAMS.
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