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Originally Posted by ADL Colin
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Well, actually, you seem to missunderstand the math.
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The interesting point of all this is that the error depends only on the number of signups and not the number of visitors
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This is actually false. lambda varies with the number of visitors, k varies with the number of sign-ups, the probability depends on both.
Obviously, things fall apart from there on,
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Most people think, ok, I'll send a certain number of visitors to a sponsor and see how many signups I get. What you should be doing instead is saying ok, I'll send a certain number of signups to a sponsor to test them.
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Which is patent nonsense.
Affiliates have to make the following business decission : I've sent X visitors to a sponsor with 0 conversions so far, how long do I give it before I pull the plug ?
With the connoted question of, how likely is this to be a mere statistical artefact, and how likely is it to be a bad fit for conversions ?
So, it's nice that you've tried, but I think you should try re-reading on the subject.
PS. Do the exercises too, it will help.