Quote:
Originally Posted by Young
2) Obama is redrawing the electoral map. He is putting Republican strongholds like Virginia, Mississippi and Georgia into play.
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Pennsylvania - Has been D the last 4 elections but a swing state the last 2. Given Obama's showing, strong chance he'll lose it... 21EVs
Georgia - Was a swing state in 92 and 96, solid R since. Clinton won it in '92. Obama "could" win it. 15 EVs
Virginia - has been R the last 4 elections, was a swing state 92 and 96 but strong R since. Given even Clinton couldn't push it D, chance for Obama is slim. 13 EVs
Mississippi - Last D win was 76. Since 60 it's been D once and independent 2x.. In other words, this is an R state and hasn't been in play for the last 20 years. Doubtful Obama would win it.. 7 EVs
So winning Georgia won't make up for losing Pennsylvania...
However, Louisiana (9EVs) and Missouri (11EVs) could be in play for Obama. Both were D during Clinton and R since, both being in play last election. Given his showing, Missouri could be tight but I don't see why he couldn't take Louisiana.
The D party is really STUPID using Caucus's since you don't get a sense of how the real voters in those states are feeling.. Any "wins" there indicate squat about how the general election could go.. Iowa (7EVs) is an important one. Was D for 3 terms and was a swing state last time but went R.. Getting that back would be important. Even though Obama won the caucas, I have a feeling he wouldn't win in Nov given he's not getting the white collar vote.
Here's some other ones.
Ohio - D during Clinton, R during Bush with it being in play every term except Clinton's second term. Hillary beat Obama solidly so has a better chance at taking it away from McCain.. 20EVs.
Tennessee - D during Clinton, R during Bush with it being in play every term except the last one. Hillary beat Obama solidly so it could be in play and winnable.. 11EVs.
Arkansas - D during Clinton, R during Bush with it being in play last election. Hillary beat Obama solidly so it could be a win for her.. 6EVs.
Arizona - Clinton won it once but it's been in play the last 2 elections. Hillary beat Obama so it could be in play for her.. 10EVs.
At the end of the day, I see more upside for Clinton as opposed to Obama.. It's hard to tell for some important states though because of those stupid caucus's.