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Old 06-30-2008, 12:20 AM  
xclicks
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Honkuver part of Vansterdam, Chinada
Posts: 78
Forget what your government tells you. Histories will repeat itself. A politician cannot foresee a crisis. They never did they never will. This is because they will loose the campaign if they foresee bad things and will have to take bad measures.
From last 7 recessions 6 were because of an oil price increase with about $10. You can figure out yourself what will be.
Second war was started by Germany to seize access to oil and other resources. War in Iraq was started by US to seize oil. This increase may lead to a major war.

Oil production may peaked (do a google about peak oil) production in last 3 years didn't exceed 86 mild barrel per day. That means we could be on the peak or the max plato.

On the other side China, India and Easter Europe countries increased demand. US/Ca and West Europe were the same. Price setup by demand is a nice lie and not works unless the offer can meet the demand. If not then there is a burst/bubble in price. A good example is prime land on the shore or downtown where the offer is limited and if the seller can choose the buyer. (eg Venezuela said will not sell in Europe for example) To fully understand this.. only about 30% of this market is free the rest is done between countries so if china need more access it will have to seize their own fields. How? This remains to be seen. We saw them in Zimbabwe and other places..
Oil price will strike US the most. Gas increase is the most there. In Europe it cost about $8 per gallon, in Canada $6. US trade is way much more based in transportation (Wal-Mart for example) then the Europeans. If there will not be a major war, because US will have to rewrite and reconsider almost everything have the chance to reinvent itself.

US gov lies about public transport. They never wanted a public transportation since Ford and GM sponsored the elections. I recommend them to visit Paris or some of other European cities to see what I mean. In Paris there is no reason to drive a car when is cheaper faster and more convenient to use public while u cannot say the same thing in any other us city.
This year is an election year. Nobody wants to spread the bad news so they will blame everything else except there is not enough oil to meet the demand



So yes.. be happy about working from home and think about who buys your membership but when they will have to choose between food or gas and your membership you may have to find a job and start commuting.
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