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Just like the last election did this one will come down to two basic things.
1. who can pull the best shenanigans off on election day in the very close battleground states.
2. Can Obama actually mobilize the far left?
Kerry went into election day thinking he had one. He lost for two reasons. The republicans in Ohio were able to manipulate the system well enough that it made it harder for the democrats to get out and vote and Kerry was happy with all the new voters he had registered and his supposed support from the far left and on election day they didn't turn up and vote.
If Obama can actually get the far left to put the bong down long enough to vote he will win. If not, he will lose. It really is that simple.
National polls mean nothing because of the electoral college. He is actually making headway into states that are traditionally republican stronghold states and he will have a ton of money to spend during the election. This is far from over, but will be very close.
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