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Originally Posted by yys
Nice call. Did you short oil and clean up?
I looked at getting into this or the etf these guys have a few months ago but I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. |
Nope, I'm not nearly wealthy or risk-loving enough to play with that kind of leverage and volatility.
The people who trade futures and futures options are rich and nuts. Typically they have 5M - 10M in their account to play with and eat up $500k swings like it's nothing. The index derivatives traders are the craziest - the guys who trade index futures can lose (or make) $500k in 1 minute. It's pure gambling.
I used to work in the financial industry and have some friends who trade commodities and financial derivatives, so I still like to keep up on what's happening. I love charts (japanese candlesticks rule)... I could study anonymous charts all day.. they tell you everything you need to know about any stock/future/option/index/etc (yes I am a proponent of efficient market theory).
Back to oil - the long term trend is up, there is no escaping it. Sudden violent swings up or down are only relevant if your time horizon is short. If you look at any oil chart.. $140 / $150 prices were stupid.. there was no trend to support it. Markets work, traders look at charts and irrationality always unwinds. Timing it is more art (and luck) than science however... people get burned when they get myopic.. when they lose sight of their underlying timeline.