GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - What is YOUR economic survival/investment strategy? Here's mine.

ADL Colin · 10-10-2008, 03:30 AM

No one can call a bottom in the stock market. No one can predict how bad the recession will be or how long it will last. I've never met or heard of anyone with such insight.

The S&P 500 is down 42% from its peak. The worst S&P bear markets of all time were -85% starting in 1929 and -44% starting in 2000. Futures are down 4% today. Looks like this will officially be the 2nd worst bear market of all time.

Last night I took everything that I absolutely won't need for the next few years and loaded it into my investment account. Gonna make one last big buy. This will increase my account by 20%.

Consider a large cap conservative company with a strong balance sheet selling at 6 times cash flow. There are quite a few right now. Assuming 8% average growth the next 10 years and 5% growth the next 10 that company is being sold at roughly 4x less than its value - using discounted cash flow and using a conservative long-term bond rate of 5%. It is likely that such a company will grow at 30% per year the next 10 years. These are values we haven't seen in the market since the 1970s. Assuming of course that we aren't entering a recession so deep that such companies will simply disappear.

As long as we aren't entering the Great Depression II such investments will, in the long run, turn out awesome. if we are, well, no one knows what darkness will come over all our finances. i will take that chance. In that case I will put the rest of what I have into anything that protects against inflation. Maybe TIPS.

Good luck to you all.

10-10-2008, 03:30 AM
ADL Colin Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Tube Titans, USA Posts: 11,929	What is YOUR economic survival/investment strategy? Here's mine. No one can call a bottom in the stock market. No one can predict how bad the recession will be or how long it will last. I've never met or heard of anyone with such insight. The S&P 500 is down 42% from its peak. The worst S&P bear markets of all time were -85% starting in 1929 and -44% starting in 2000. Futures are down 4% today. Looks like this will officially be the 2nd worst bear market of all time. Last night I took everything that I absolutely won't need for the next few years and loaded it into my investment account. Gonna make one last big buy. This will increase my account by 20%. Consider a large cap conservative company with a strong balance sheet selling at 6 times cash flow. There are quite a few right now. Assuming 8% average growth the next 10 years and 5% growth the next 10 that company is being sold at roughly 4x less than its value - using discounted cash flow and using a conservative long-term bond rate of 5%. It is likely that such a company will grow at 30% per year the next 10 years. These are values we haven't seen in the market since the 1970s. Assuming of course that we aren't entering a recession so deep that such companies will simply disappear. As long as we aren't entering the Great Depression II such investments will, in the long run, turn out awesome. if we are, well, no one knows what darkness will come over all our finances. i will take that chance. In that case I will put the rest of what I have into anything that protects against inflation. Maybe TIPS. Good luck to you all. __________________ Adult Date Link - $50 PPS starting NOW! -- good and JUICY! skype = "adultdatelink" Last edited by ADL Colin; 10-10-2008 at 03:32 AM..