Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutt
i would not be counting any chickens before they hatched in this election in particular -
1)the Bradley Effect and 2)young voters who are overwhelmingly for Obama never get their lazy asses out to vote, they talk a great game on the Net tho
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1) The Bradley effect is pretty much urban legend. It's just something they have to talk about on cable news to fill 24 hours.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...lective_m.html
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/...5653453.column
2) The young voters are the reason Obama won the nomination, they came out in record numbers. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they would vote for him in the primary and then stay at home for the general.
Also, I'm sure all of the major pollsters are including variables like turnout in their predictions.
Look at it this way, the most standard "likely voter" scenario that is standard practice in polling, is to assume the electorate will be the same as it was 4 years ago. 4 years ago was the highest republican turnout in history. (for alot of reasons, but mostly the gay marriage referendums on the ballot in alot of states)
Even the polls using that model show Obama up overall and up in the battleground states.
This is going to be a depressed turnout year for republicans and a record turnout year for democrats.
It wouldn't be right for Obama/Biden or any of their surrogates to start dancing in the streets now, you guys are right about that. I, however, can dance all I want....just like when I said the primary was pretty much over after Texas and Ohio, and I was right about that......alot of folks were trying to spin scenarios of how Hillary could win, but it really was over.
At that point Hillary couldn't catch up in delegates.
At this point in the general, there are no more debates, conventions, VP picks, or anything left really to shift the momentum. McCain is way behind in the polls and almost out of resources, while Obama is starting to advertise in some very red states, has bought a half hour on the networks Wednesday night, and I can't imagine a scenario where that doesn't help him in the polls, because he's very telegenic and a gifted orator.....and he'll be saturating the airwaves in all of the battleground states from now until election day because he has pretty much unlimited funds to do so.
Just think about the term "battleground state", that used to mean Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. (purple states) Now McCain has to play defense in North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri (red states). It's getting really ugly for the republicans at this point.
Something outside of McCain's control could happen (terrorist attack, Russia invades Georgia for real, Iran invades Iraq, etc) but those things have a fraction of a percent chance of happening, and even then it's not guaranteed that they would help him, what with Colin Powell rumored to be endorsing Obama this weekend and beefing up his foreign policy/national security bona fides even more.
