Everyone already knows about the tube sites, and well, some of them really cant get bigger in terms of views. Theres a bunch in the top 100 on alexa. I would say the adjustment to these sites is already felt for the most part. To me, the big adjustment started last summer of 2007 and ran into april of 2008, then things sort've stabilized (the big sites hit a ceiling).
The threat isnt tube sites, the threat is piracy. Most of the big tube sites have money on the table now, where they know better than to steal blatantly, and I do still think there's litigation coming for some of the big boys who like to look the other way or steal blatantly. I know first hand we are compiling evidence against some, and the laws around piracy worldwide will change to make it easier to prosecute. I say that because, if you think its bad in adult, its much worst for Hollywood, music, software, etc. Recently a popular content removal site was having trouble with a tube site owner, well this company deals with all the biggest companies and eventually someone got fed up and there was going to be a real lawsuit - the hosts were contacted, the owner was contacted, a mass email was sent out to said comapny's client list, and from what i know - the owner became a bit more cooperative after that.
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