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Old 10-29-2008, 10:13 PM  
pocketkangaroo
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 8,452
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snake Doctor View Post
Possible.

The thing is, after he picked Palin, his numbers shot up big time....he had a huge convention bounce and it wasn't because of his speech.

Conventional wisdom seems to be the financial crisis....BUT...other things happened about the same time. The first debate where Obama looked "presidential" and it was the first time alot of swing voters really paid attention to either of them.....and that's about when the new car smell wore off of Palin and people started looking under the hood and didn't like what they saw.
I think it was inevitable but probably a mix of everything. The financial situation hurt a lot, but don't underestimate Palin. His numbers shot up after picking her, but that's because no one really knew her. Just the narrative they were being fed. After her embarrassing interviews, corruption issues, and odd beliefs got brought forward, people started swaying away.

I'd also mention that most candidates get a bounce during their convention that goes down afterwards. FiveThirtyEight.com did a historical analysis of it and had it pegged to a T.
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