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It's too close to call.
But, don't count out: the red states, rural America, men, conservative women, veterans, evangelicals, NRA members, the rich, small businesses, and the military. Many of these groups will be supporting McCain.
The US President is the most important elected official, and most voters know that, and they act with extra care. Recent Republican ads paint Obama as "Risky" --and that message should resonate with some liberal but "careful" voters, AKA housewives. At the moment of truth, many will err on the side of caution, against Obama.
Some analysts have said that a number of McCain supporters are afraid of being called racists for not supporting Obama, so McCain support is under-represented in the polls. Is that a significant number of people, enough to swing a close election? Who knows?
We'll all know soon..
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