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Old 01-26-2009, 01:35 PM  
Snake Doctor
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Join Date: Mar 2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ADL Colin View Post
I read Schiff's most recent book and though he called some things right he missed on others big-time and there is a public record on all that. For one he believed strongly that the US economy was decoupled from others. That it was safe to invest overseas because the coming problems in the US would not infect the rest of the world. He particularly liked Asia. Last I checked China was down more than the US. Decoupling, while all the rage for a few months. has turned out to be completely wrong. A worldwide recession hit, not a US one. The economies of the world are highly coupled.

Schiff specifically said that oil was NOT in a bubble in May of 2008. Oil was $117 at the time. He predicted that oil could see "$150-$200" in 2009. Oil is now in the $40s.

He also thought the US dollar would collapse. He said that when it was at $160 vs Euro. He said it would drop 40-50% and that as early as 2009 we could see aggressive moves by Asian and Middle Eastern countries that could really put pressure on the dollar.

He also predicted that oil would hit $1200 to $1500 by the end of 2008.

Here is an article (Peter Schiff was wrong).
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...was-wrong.html

There are a number of points made, some similar to, some different than mine. Also according to that website the author knows a number of people who lost 40-70% with Schiff. Probably not very unreliable but considering Schiff's views and misses it seems highly likely that his clients were losing chunks of money if he was putting then in oil and going negative on the dollar.

Schiff loves to position himself as the guy who got everything right when everyone else was wrong. David facing Goliath. but when i read his book I thought he got more wrong than right - based on what has happened so far. Now, sure there's always the future .. but we ain't there yet. It reminds me of those companies that run dozens of funds, some long some short. Every year they can blast their successes. What they leave out is all the funds that did poorly. Schiff himself won't tell you what he missed wildly on. His record is out there though.
That's the way it is with the chicken littles out there. Every time something bad happens they say they told you so...and if something bad doesn't happen, they say it just hasn't happened yet, so they never have to admit to being wrong.
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