Quote:
Originally Posted by xxxdesign-net
how dishonest can you be? how many recessions in the last 25 years?
And it started in July 1990 out of nowhere? It all started in 1987..
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What is this PHANTOM 1987 recession?
Unemployment was shrinking in 87 and GDP was growing. That is WHY the NBER didn't list a recession in 87. There was NO recession in 87 and nothing started in 87. Unemployment dropped all throughout 1987 ending at a very low 5.7% in december of 87. Unemployment continued to fall in 88 ending the year at 5.4%
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1987/09/art6exc.htm
Strong employment growth highlights first half of 1987
Wayne J. Howe
Employment rose markedly during the first half of 1987. The number of unemployed workers dropped by 700,000 to 7.4 million, and the civilian unemployment rate fell more than half a point to 6.2 percent. This brought the rate to its lowest level since the first quarter of 1980.
The employment gains in the first half continued to be concentrated in the service-producing sector. In the goods-producing sector, there was an overall increase in construction and manufacturing jobs, and employment in mining began to show a recovery from recent job losses.
Here are the GDP numbers:
1983-01-01 3382.9
1983-04-01 3484.1
1983-07-01 3589.3
1983-10-01 3690.4
1984-01-01 3809.6
1984-04-01 3908.6
1984-07-01 3978.2
1984-10-01 4036.3
1985-01-01 4119.5
1985-04-01 4178.4
1985-07-01 4261.3
1985-10-01 4321.8
1986-01-01 4385.6
1986-04-01 4425.7
1986-07-01 4493.9
1986-10-01 4546.1
1987-01-01 4613.8
1987-04-01 4690.0
1987-07-01 4767.8
1987-10-01 4886.3
1988-01-01 4954.1
1988-04-01 5062.8
1988-07-01 5146.6
1988-10-01 5253.7
1989-01-01 5367.1
1989-04-01 5454.1
1989-07-01 5531.9
1989-10-01 5584.3
How did GDP do in 1987? From 1/1/87 to 1/1/88 GDP grew 7.3%! That is very strong growth! And in 88? 8.4%!
Do the math yourself! (4954.1/4613.8) = 1.073 = 7.3% growth!
'87 and 89 were years of very strong growth and falling unemployment!
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As far as over what period to determine an average length between recessions 25 years is way too short for a number that averages less than 10. I prefer to look over a century. Even over the past 25 years you have the 91, 01 and current recession. That's 3 in 25 years = 8 years which doesn't make him any more accurate (91-83 = 8!)