what is this "shakeout" you are talking about? there are just as many sites out there as there ever was, maybe more, and just because less money is being made doesn't mean the sites will disappear, if anything there will still be more crappy sites coming out as more people and more third world countries get connected and try to make 10 cents a day with their sites
just because 95% of affiliates will make zero doesn't mean that they will disappear along with their sites and all of a sudden the other 5% will start to make more
and if you are talking about it from the perspective of a paysite owner, I don't see that getting any easier in the future either
