Originally Posted by kane

For sure she is going to have to leave Alaska and move somewhere where she can get easier access to the rest of the country without having huge trips. I still think she might run for the senate seat coming up in Alaska. If that person runs for governor she could run for the senate seat. If she wins that puts her in Washington a lot and she can use that as a base of operations to get out to the different states. Plus it gives her more experience on a national level.

Realistically how the 2012 election goes is all in Obama's hands. If three years from now things are good and he is popular it won't matter who runs against him because they will lose. It is very difficult to beat an incumbent president to begin with. It is nearly impossible if things are going well and he is popular.

If things aren't going well and his popularity has slipped he could be vulnerable, but that would still mean that the republicans would only have three years to get their shit together and right now their party is in shambles. Romney has money and a name, but if Obama is poised to crush whoever goes up against him he may not even run in 2012. If you run once and lose, especially if you get crushed it is almost impossible to overcome that so he might wait until 2016 as well.

That said I still see Palin as a Huckabee kind of candidate. she can do really well in the bible belt states, but when you eventually leave those states and move into the more progressive states it is hard for severe right wingers (and make no mistake that is exactly what she is) to do well. Her biggest problem is that to half the country she is folksy and they find her charming. The other half think she is annoying and dumb. It will be very hard for her to overcome that.