Quote:
Originally Posted by EscortBiz
I bet that you are wrong on everything
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1. According to the national association of realtors the median home price bottomed in january, 2009. I'll take that as a win as I said between December and March - though I guess you might still think there's another leg down. I don't. Thoughts?
2008 Jun r 215,000
2008 Jul 210,100
2008 Aug 203,200
2008 Sept 191,400
2008 Oct 186,400
2008 Nov 180,300
2008 Dec 175,700
2009 Jan 164,800
2009 Feb 168,200
2009 Mar 169,900
2009 Apr 166,600
2009 May r 174,700
2009 Jun p 181,800
2. Did GDP bottom between April and June, 2009? Quite possibly. The forecast for the immediate quarter is +2-3%. Just a forecast and still remains to be seen but I think I'll be close anyway. Looks to me like the bottom will be either June or July.
3. I was definitely wrong about the stock market by 3 months and 10.1%. It dropped another 10% below the December low in March. But you call bottoms to within 3 months and 10% you'll make a killing. My entire portfolio is up over 100% in the past 12 months. Made a HUGE killing in WFC, IR and AXP. I still can't believe WFC was selling for single digits. Insanity! People really thought WFC was going out of business. No, no and no. Buffett was right. WFC was a gem. Roubini made me a fortune by scaring that price down. Thanks, dude!
4. Will unemployment bottom between October and December 2009? I'm still sticking with that one. What's the most recent consensus? Anyone know? I have to check.
I think the general outline of what was going to happen and the general timeline was pretty obvious to anyone with a solid knowledge of the history of US recessions and bear markets. History really does rhyme - to within 10% and a few months anyway. Unfortunately for most, fear overwhelms their decision making and they sell stocks when they should be buying.