GoFuckYourself.com - Adult Webmaster Forum - View Single Post - Bernanke, says the U.S.economy is on the cusp of a recovery

Ron Bennett · 08-23-2009, 08:11 PM

In the view of many, including myself, the worst is likely to come.

Read up on the 1930s depression...

Most folks are familiar with the big crash of October 1929, but few are aware the stock market over the following two years greatly increased, and then dropped even further by middle of 1932 than it had in October 1929...

It took till mid 1950s for the markets to regain the Depression losses...

Often money managers tout that people who stay in the market for the long-haul make money ... that may be true, but realize that when they say longterm, that's not 10 years, but more like 25, 50, or even longer!

There are two fundlemental types of recession / depression ... inventory based and debt based ... this one is debt based ... until the deleveraging is done, the recovery won't begin.

Here's the big question many have, including me...

Where are all the decent paying (as in $20+ per hour with good benefits) going to come from?

As of now, even manufacturing pay has "reset", so to speak, to around $14 per hour with few benefits, which is about half of what it once was.

Of course most manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, but so have many whitecollar jobs; most service-based jobs pay poorly. So again, where are all the new decent paying jobs going to come from?

And finally, keep in mind that net (which takes into account deaths / retirees, etc) job growth in the past decade was basically ZERO and yet the U.S. population grew by roughly 30 million in that same time; the working age population (after subtracting out deaths and retirees) is growing at 100,000+ per month. So not only do new jobs need to be created for all those currently out of work, but also for the 100,000+ new people entering the workforce each month.

In a consumer based economy in which many people have low incomes and lots of debt, there's basically only one direction things can go ... DOWN!

In my view, the bottom isn't anywhere near yet. When people are protesting in the streets every day, after numerous bloody massacres, etc then that may be the time when one can call it a bottom - we're not anywhere near it yet. But that's my dimes worth ... hope I'm wrong - time will tell.

Ron

08-23-2009, 08:11 PM
Ron Bennett Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 1,653	In the view of many, including myself, the worst is likely to come. Read up on the 1930s depression... Most folks are familiar with the big crash of October 1929, but few are aware the stock market over the following two years greatly increased, and then dropped even further by middle of 1932 than it had in October 1929... It took till mid 1950s for the markets to regain the Depression losses... Often money managers tout that people who stay in the market for the long-haul make money ... that may be true, but realize that when they say longterm, that's not 10 years, but more like 25, 50, or even longer! There are two fundlemental types of recession / depression ... inventory based and debt based ... this one is debt based ... until the deleveraging is done, the recovery won't begin. Here's the big question many have, including me... Where are all the decent paying (as in $20+ per hour with good benefits) going to come from? As of now, even manufacturing pay has "reset", so to speak, to around $14 per hour with few benefits, which is about half of what it once was. Of course most manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, but so have many whitecollar jobs; most service-based jobs pay poorly. So again, where are all the new decent paying jobs going to come from? And finally, keep in mind that net (which takes into account deaths / retirees, etc) job growth in the past decade was basically ZERO and yet the U.S. population grew by roughly 30 million in that same time; the working age population (after subtracting out deaths and retirees) is growing at 100,000+ per month. So not only do new jobs need to be created for all those currently out of work, but also for the 100,000+ new people entering the workforce each month. In a consumer based economy in which many people have low incomes and lots of debt, there's basically only one direction things can go ... DOWN! In my view, the bottom isn't anywhere near yet. When people are protesting in the streets every day, after numerous bloody massacres, etc then that may be the time when one can call it a bottom - we're not anywhere near it yet. But that's my dimes worth ... hope I'm wrong - time will tell. Ron __________________ Domagon - Website Management and Domain Name Sales