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Thumbking · 09-01-2009, 05:55 PM

The unemployment rate is much higher then 7.1%

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Written by Jeff Nielson Sunday, 30 August 2009 14:18

There are/were 2.5 million lay-offs in the U.S. in August, the total of the weekly lay-offs for this month. With another fraudulent jobs report due out next Friday, the U.S. propaganda-machine is already brainwashing the markets and the American people to put their faith in a number with no basis in reality.

If we take the 2.5 million lay-offs, and subtract the “estimated” net job-losses for August – 235,000 jobs – this means the “experts” cited by Bloomberg (in its weekly propaganda report) are predicting that the U.S. economy created 2.265 million jobs in August.

At a time when these same “experts” state that the U.S. economy is in its worst crisis “since the Great Depression”, they expect us to believe that the U.S. economy is creating more new jobs every month than at any other time this decade.

The numbers were virtually the same for July: 2.5 million lay-offs, supposedly only 250,000 jobs lost – directly implying the creation of well over 2 million jobs in July. The lies were only slightly smaller in May and June.

Historically, when weekly lay-offs exceed 300,000 per week (for a total of roughly 1.3 million for a month), the U.S. economy begins to shed jobs on a net basis. This basic arithmetic means that each time the U.S. economy heads into a downturn, it is unable to produce more than 1.2 million new positions per month.

Given these historical ratios between lay-offs and job-losses, how can anyone possibly believe that with the U.S. experiencing its worst economic collapse in at least 70 years that the U.S. economy is (supposedly) creating twice as many jobs as during a normal downturn??

Bear in mind that the same “experts” who are trying to get us to believe their obviously fraudulent numbers have already told Americans to expect a “job-less recovery”. In other words, we are supposed to believe that during this collapse the U.S. economy is creating twice as many jobs as during a normal downturn, but once the “recovery” starts, the economy will then produce far fewer jobs.

This is obviously utter nonsense.

As regular readers know, I have written (ad nauseum) on this issue previously (see “U.S. economy to lose 20 MILLION jobs this year”). However, for newer readers, I will provide some more realistic numbers to work with.

To begin with, we know that roughly 18 months ago the U.S. economy was producing only about 1.2 million new positions per month. This is the total number of implied new jobs created when we subtract net, monthly job losses from total lay-offs.

Since that point in time, the U.S. economy has obviously gotten much, much weaker. The unprecedented drop in state and federal government tax revenues do not lie. Much lower tax revenues mean many fewer employed people paying taxes.

Thus, we can deduce through basic logic that the U.S. economy is producing far less than 1.2 million new positions per month. My own best “guesstimate” is that the U.S. economy is producing (at the most) 750,000 new positions per month. When we subtract 750,000 new positions from 2.5 million lay-offs for the month, we are left with a net job-loss of 1.75 million jobs for the month of August (and virtually identical numbers for July).

This is why I continue to state that the monthly job reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are not simply very poor “estimates”, made in good faith – but, rather, a deliberately falsified reports, where there is no possibility of rationalizing their numbers with the real world.

When the actual job losses are approximately 600% more than the official estimate (and this same error is repeated month after month after month), what we are obviously witnessing is nothing more than a crude attempt at brainwashing.

Early this year I predicted the U.S. economy would lose 20 million jobs this year, and with the year now 2/3 gone, I see absolutely no reason to adjust that estimate at all.

For those who wish to separate fact from fiction, I suggest completely ignoring the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and focusing entirely on the weekly lay-offs number. As long as these lay-offs continue to total more than 2 million per month, it is a mathematical certainty that the U.S. economy is losing at least 1 million jobs per month – and likely far more than that.

In the improbable event that we do actually see some sort of “economic recovery”, then the weekly lay-offs would have to fall to little more than half their current total. Unless/until that happens, the U.S. labor market will continue to shed jobs at this Great Depression-like rate.

09-01-2009, 05:55 PM
Thumbking Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Canadabis Posts: 1,067	The unemployment rate is much higher then 7.1% __________________________________________________ __________ Written by Jeff Nielson Sunday, 30 August 2009 14:18 There are/were 2.5 million lay-offs in the U.S. in August, the total of the weekly lay-offs for this month. With another fraudulent jobs report due out next Friday, the U.S. propaganda-machine is already brainwashing the markets and the American people to put their faith in a number with no basis in reality. If we take the 2.5 million lay-offs, and subtract the “estimated” net job-losses for August – 235,000 jobs – this means the “experts” cited by Bloomberg (in its weekly propaganda report) are predicting that the U.S. economy created 2.265 million jobs in August. At a time when these same “experts” state that the U.S. economy is in its worst crisis “since the Great Depression”, they expect us to believe that the U.S. economy is creating more new jobs every month than at any other time this decade. The numbers were virtually the same for July: 2.5 million lay-offs, supposedly only 250,000 jobs lost – directly implying the creation of well over 2 million jobs in July. The lies were only slightly smaller in May and June. Historically, when weekly lay-offs exceed 300,000 per week (for a total of roughly 1.3 million for a month), the U.S. economy begins to shed jobs on a net basis. This basic arithmetic means that each time the U.S. economy heads into a downturn, it is unable to produce more than 1.2 million new positions per month. Given these historical ratios between lay-offs and job-losses, how can anyone possibly believe that with the U.S. experiencing its worst economic collapse in at least 70 years that the U.S. economy is (supposedly) creating twice as many jobs as during a normal downturn?? Bear in mind that the same “experts” who are trying to get us to believe their obviously fraudulent numbers have already told Americans to expect a “job-less recovery”. In other words, we are supposed to believe that during this collapse the U.S. economy is creating twice as many jobs as during a normal downturn, but once the “recovery” starts, the economy will then produce far fewer jobs. This is obviously utter nonsense. As regular readers know, I have written (ad nauseum) on this issue previously (see “U.S. economy to lose 20 MILLION jobs this year”). However, for newer readers, I will provide some more realistic numbers to work with. To begin with, we know that roughly 18 months ago the U.S. economy was producing only about 1.2 million new positions per month. This is the total number of implied new jobs created when we subtract net, monthly job losses from total lay-offs. Since that point in time, the U.S. economy has obviously gotten much, much weaker. The unprecedented drop in state and federal government tax revenues do not lie. Much lower tax revenues mean many fewer employed people paying taxes. Thus, we can deduce through basic logic that the U.S. economy is producing far less than 1.2 million new positions per month. My own best “guesstimate” is that the U.S. economy is producing (at the most) 750,000 new positions per month. When we subtract 750,000 new positions from 2.5 million lay-offs for the month, we are left with a net job-loss of 1.75 million jobs for the month of August (and virtually identical numbers for July). This is why I continue to state that the monthly job reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics are not simply very poor “estimates”, made in good faith – but, rather, a deliberately falsified reports, where there is no possibility of rationalizing their numbers with the real world. When the actual job losses are approximately 600% more than the official estimate (and this same error is repeated month after month after month), what we are obviously witnessing is nothing more than a crude attempt at brainwashing. Early this year I predicted the U.S. economy would lose 20 million jobs this year, and with the year now 2/3 gone, I see absolutely no reason to adjust that estimate at all. For those who wish to separate fact from fiction, I suggest completely ignoring the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and focusing entirely on the weekly lay-offs number. As long as these lay-offs continue to total more than 2 million per month, it is a mathematical certainty that the U.S. economy is losing at least 1 million jobs per month – and likely far more than that. In the improbable event that we do actually see some sort of “economic recovery”, then the weekly lay-offs would have to fall to little more than half their current total. Unless/until that happens, the U.S. labor market will continue to shed jobs at this Great Depression-like rate. Last edited by Thumbking; 09-01-2009 at 05:56 PM..