Quote:
Originally Posted by Profits of Doom
As someone who has been involved in several different pick sites, if you are going to have your own pick site you seriously need to consider playing far fewer NFL games. The NFL is the toughest sport to cap, period, and no one can be successful picking that many games a week.
I would seriously pick a maximum of three sides/totals combined a week, and I would say less but most people that buy picks will want at least three. When I was booking bets I would roll out the red carpet for a guy that played 5 or more NFL games a week, since I knew his money was soon to be mine...
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I don't bet much but the few times I have, I made the mistake of parlaying on 5 games/totals and there's almost always going to be at least 2 that don't go as it should on paper. As a Chargers fan, I have learned never to bet for or against them because they've always been so unpredictable week to week (heck, they didn't cover the spread against the Raiders and them covering against the Raiders especially in week 1 before injuries would have been the most sure bet you can make on them), and I'm sure most fans of teams probably say that about their team too. I'm sure the real ballers only play the most likely to be "sure" bets. Kind of like the domain world - best to focus your efforts on getting only a few of the best domains vs. having a portfolio of decent domains...your odds are better of cashing in that way. Unfortunately most gamblers look at payouts and going more games/totals looks pretty on paper...as does the lottery.