XPays: I don't have a real feel for US politics. If the ICM Registry folks convinced politicians to mandate adult content be moved to .xxx, it would, as you imply, make it a lot easier to block (and give ICM Registry a big monopoly to tax adult webmasters). On the other hand, as the family groups argued, it might make it increase the supply or number of domains hosting adult content....
The new TLDs debate is still ongoing, and the Department of Commerce has an "affirmation of commitments" agreement with ICANN that requires economic studies, etc. be conducted before launching them.
http://www.icann.org/en/documents/af...30sep09-en.htm
However, ICM would be going through under the old procedure (same procedure that brought us .tel, .asia, .cat and other lame TLDs). It's a good time to be a lawyer or lobbyist (neither of which I am)! $$$$$$$$$$