kane

I have as much chance of winning the presidential election as Ron Paul does. The reason I say that is I firmly believe that Paul really doesn't want to be president and will never carry out a campaign that could give him a legit chance of winning.

That said, according to Gallup http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/ga...-approval.aspx Obama currently has a 51% job approval rating. Sure, on some things he rates lower and on other things higher, but overall that is decent.

Look back at 2004. I would have never thought that Bush would get re-elected. The economy was not doing well, we were marred in an unnecessary war in Iraq that was/still is costing billions not to mention many lives and he had pretty much turned all the good will of the world against us. Yet, he still won. Sure, Kerry was not a great candidate, but he wasn't horrible either.

Here is a Gallup poll showing if the election were held today how the votes would go down
http://www.pollingreport.com/2012.htm

It shows Obama winning against a generic candidate by a few points. When matched up against specific candidates he beats them all by double digits.

Obviously this is without those people even campaigning, so it might be closer than that, but then again it may not. Once people get to know the candidates a little more they very well may not like them at all. Which is why it is so hard to be an incumbent. At least with the incumbent you know what you are getting, you have take a leap of faith with the new candidate. As much as people say they want change in this country, most people really don't.

Add in that the country is still not happy with republicans and it makes it an uphill battle for them. I think they have gotten cocky. They won an election in Mass and won a few governor's seats and they think the country is ready to hand them over the reins again.