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A lot of people jump into adult as a secondary income so you do see a longer survival rate because they have other income to fall back on as they get their sites going.
Most of the failure comes from not so much lack of revenues, but the realization that this business isn't as easy as they thought it would be and requires round the clock 7 days per week of your attention if you want it to grow into a serious business that can support you full time.
A lot of people also don't realize all the legal issues they have to deal with when they jump in. Even basic ones like setting up corps or LLC to start building insulation layers and such. Or content legalities, etc.
Its pretty hard to fail in this business if you work hard, learn the tricks and ins and outs from the guys who have been in it for a while, are creative and do your homework daily, and have some general marketing and promotion skills.
The guys who become whales are typically great also at market analysis and finding the niche voids that aren't being served well by current sites. And then build out their own affiliate programs. Or guys who setup large scale deals to service the webmaster community. There's a lot of money in providing the tools to the gold prospectors.
Overall I'd estimate 10%-20% come in and leave within 12 months for whatever reason. So the chances are pretty much in your favor to succeed if you do it right and don't cut corners.
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