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xmas13 · 03-14-2010, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Dr.F., NYC
March 10th, 2009
With a Ph.D from Oxford in the philosophy of science -and a special interest in probabilty theory and the application of statistics- now working in business, I often meet former mathematicians and physicists working in finance. Early into the fad of quantitative analyis I met one who had a simple and seemingly plausible method for identifying favorable stock opportunities. When pressed he said he had backed tested the model for three years and it produced better than average returns; I suggested this was a very limited sample with results that could easily be due to chance. This was a possibility he admitted - I then rephrased my doubts by asking how he would persuade a philospher of science that he had found a real, stable, pattern in the world rather than a chance correlation he replied "I don't have to persuade philosphers of science, I have to persuade investors".

Or as they say "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"...perhaps the single most discussed issue in the philosophy of science since the 18th Century.