Quote:
Originally Posted by theking
It is my understanding that there are not enough seats up for re-election for them to take control of the House or the Senate in November...am I mistaken?
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There are enough seats up, but the odds are pretty low. They actually have a better chance of regaining control of the house than they do the senate. There is a guy that runs the website
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ who is very knowledgeable about stats, odds and politics. He is almost always dead on and he gives the republicans only about a 10% chance of taking back the senate. Incumbent senators are not easy to beat and both sides have people who are retiring and/or not running for re-election. The house, on the other hand, has a bunch of so called "Blue Dog" democrats. These are the conservative democrats and many of them were elected in areas where republicans tend to win. They were originally elected during the height of the anti-republican sentiment in this country and many of them voted for the health care bill which could put them in a situation where they might be vulnerable. So I think the republicans have a chance of winning back the house, but not much of a real chance of winning back the senate. I feel they will gain seats in both, but still not have a majority.
Of course November is a long ways away and you never know what will happen between now and then.