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Here is my 2 cents on why conversions are down and why you need to always look for something fresh and new to promote like Swurve from Shelly above.
A lot of the established programs have APIs now. This has led to a lot of people already having an account at the sponsor you are sending them to. They may not even realize they have an account (email with the pswd, etc. from the dating program ended up in their spam box) but their email has been passed to the dating program thru the API from some free site they joined like a tube.
If they complete the sale the affiliate that passed their email thru the API to the dating site is going to get credit for that sale and not you.
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