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Originally Posted by kane
The first sentence here makes no sense at all and I have no idea what you are trying to say which makes the second sentence meaningless. Are you saying they would base the pay on similar TV shows? None of what you wrote here really resembles basic 8th grade English so you need to edit it and make what you are trying to say more clear.
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i corrected it
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tv shows get signed to stations without establishing their audience levels in the theaters
it an insanely stupid arguement to say that the same thing methodology could not be uses for simalcast movies.
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you were trying to argue that even though ever single tv show that currently airs on tv never established an audience baseline in the theaters (all of which were paid for by the stations btw)
it somehow impossible for the same methodology to be use for movies.
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These are examples that are going to be exceptions to the rule. Of course those movies still did well. They were hugely marketed and very highly anticipated. We have no idea of knowing how many downloaders actually then went and paid for a ticket. Also, we aren't talking about a workprint here. You think people will watch the show on TV for free then pay to see it in the theater? There is a big difference between what people would see on TV and a workprint.
I think the number of people who would be willing to pay $20 for a movie is pretty slim. Where I live we have a theater (well it is actually about 25 miles from where I live) that offers a huge buffet of food, giant reclining chairs (like you would have in your living room) all digital screens and the promise of no kids in any movie that is meant for adults. They charge $20 per ticket because they are a "premium" service. I went there once and it was pretty cool. The place was at about 75% capacity on a Saturday night. They tried to open up a second location and it failed because they found out that one location is a novelty and something a lot of people were willing to do on occasion, two locations were too many and couldn't compete with the other theaters that cost half as much.
There are people who would pay $20 for a movie if it really was a great experience, but there are many more who would pay $10, but skip it if it cost $20. Here is a perfect example. I paid the extra couple of bucks and saw Avatar in 3D. I liked it a lot and told my friends about it. Both of them decided not to go see it because their kids wanted to see it and they didn't want to pay the extra money for all of them. So they waited until it was out on DVD. If you have a spouse and 2 kids and you want to go to a movie, $40 is a lot of money, $80 is outrageous.
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i was including concessions in that price point
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This is all fine and good but this is still no 60 trillion/year business. To say that would mean that it is bigger than all of the oil companies and all of the auto companies in the world combined.
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it was a research report, that stated that number they used
remember that each technological advancement in components spures other industry and technologies
mp3 commercialized solid state disk, reducing the price of solid state disk from $5/mb to $5/gb
creating trillions of dollars worth of new technology, cell phones, pda, game machines etc all would not exist in their current form if solid state disk had not been commercialized.
your obviously ignoring all of that technological advancement.
but for the sake of arguement let ignore all of that
say you only uses the hard statistics from the vcr days , the jobs created within the country for the sale of hard goods
at the time 5 jobs were created selling vcr for every job lost making content.
And here is the key
vcr created a new sales channel for th content
movies that were only sold in the theaters were sold on video cassette
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This also doesn't address the problem of lost revenue for the the content producer. They are the ones who suffer from piracy. All the increased sales of A/V gear in the world doesn't help them recoup their losses to pirates.
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only if your a world class moron who doesn't realize that each new medium provides another sales channel
fact
when people upgrade their vcr to dvd players they rebought their favorite movies
they did the same thing when they upgraded to blue ray.
http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Bl.../dp/B000Y9Q59W
wall street a movie released originally on video cassette is being sold on blue ray
if your arguement had any validity then the sales of such a release would have to be zero.
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Again, where do you get this 60 trillion number? As I pointed out in my answer above that is a huge amount. Where is this coming from? Do you have proof or are you just pulling this number out of your ass?
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ok say the number is totally wrong
let say it only as good as history has already proven
use the old vcr numbers 5 jobs were gained for every job that was claimed to be lost
none of those jobs were actually lost because studios started selling the movies to the people that bought the vcr (creating the greatest revenue greater than all other sources combined)
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Also, all the great A/V gear in the world isn't worth a pile of shit if you have nothing to play on it. As piracy continues to grow we could see fewer and fewer movies being made. Fewer big budget movies being made and more lower budget, less risky movies made. People complain that there is only crap coming out of Hollywood now. Wait until they start losing more money to piracy and see what they make. The less chance for them to make money that they have the fewer risks they are going to take and the more mundane the crap is going to get.
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do you want to produce a single piece of proof that this is happening.
just one documented record that proves that capital investment in movie production has decreased.
movie budgets have grown year after year, actors salaries have grown
profits are up, more movies are being release
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That aside, I still want to see proof as to how this increase in home theater technology is going to fuel a 60 trillion dollar/ year industry.
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if your going to ignore all the spawned technologies that could exist by the commercialization of component technologies (ie all the industries/consumer devices that were created because solid state disk dropped from 5/mb to 5/gb) then yes it would be hard to see how it would be that great.
for the sake of arguement let just pretend none of that exists.
physical goods have massive LOCAL job creation in the support of those items
the vcr created 5 jobs for every job "suspected" of being lost
every dollar "suspected" of being lost was replaced with even more money when the platform was embraced.
So none of those so called losses actually ever existed.
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As I said, there are some movies I want to see in the theater. For example, Iron Man 2 I wanted to see in the theater because I wanted the big screen, good sound system etc. But there are only a few of that type of movie each year that really inspire me to go to the theater. Just about every other movie I don't care about the big screen. For example, I just got Shutter Island in the mail today from Netflix. I have wanted to see it for a while, but I could have cared less about seeing it on the big screen.
There are always going to be event movies that will do well no matter if they have large numbers of downloads or not. The movies that benefit the most from a theatrical release are movies like The Hangover. This movie did a lot better than anyone thought it would at the box office. Because of this they sold a lot more DVDs, had a ton more pay-per-view buys and I'm sure they got a pretty handsome price to sell the rights to HBO and other TV/cable providers. Had they released it to all channels at once that very well may not have happened.
I have said all along that you get what you pay for. As you devalue content and treat it like it is filler or garbage to be used and tossed away at your whim, eventually you will get what you pay and chances are you won't like it.
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fact physical goods provide for the local economy
when your dvr/pvr breaks you don't ship it all the way to china to get fixed you get it fixed at the local level
fact content production and editing is continually being outsourced to cheap labor countries.
even if the income loss balanced out perfectly protecting fair use would be good for a countries economy.
Fact the vcr historical records proved for every one job projected to be lost in entertainment industry 5 jobs were created
common sense supporting a physcial good creates more jobs than supporting a digital one.
how many people do you think it takes to "deliver" a bunch of streamed content.
how many people does it take to "deliver" a pallet lot of pvr/vcr etc.
so this arguement basically comes down, because of a potential loss that only occurs for a small group of entertainment we should destroy all the jobs that would be created.
jobs that history has repeatedly proven have been created every time we have had this dispute
for "Suspected" income losses, and a dooms day senerio that has never happened even though it has been predicted time and time again.
i have a simple question
why should we believe that this dooms day senerio will happen this time given the fact that every previous time it has been predicted it never happened.