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More programs and/or sites will close. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg. Reasons are simple and been already partly pointed out and they will effect all the models. Only the fittest and canniest will survive.
Reasons are simple. The cost of driving traffic is too high for today. Be it Rev share or PPS. Not only is it what goes to the affiliates, it's things like tools, support (how many people are moaning they don't get 24/7 support? In todays market it's not profitable.) promotion, etc. Then there's programs, staff, offices, expenses, content and more. Many are fixed costs and can't be cut on. Great in 2005 and will put some out of business in 2010 and beyond.
You can blame Tubes, free content, economy, summer, solar eclipses, etc. But the real reason is paysites have refused to meet customers needs first. So the customer ain't playing the game today.
Some will survive, small operations serving niches and mega ones buying everything else up. Affiliates in the long run will be the worse hit. Why will the industry need so many with so few sponsors to promote? The remaining few sponsors will soon figure that out.
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