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Originally Posted by dyna mo
where do you come up with this?
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Not sure I follow you.
The tea party is all about cutting spending, shrinking government and reducing taxes. Many of the candidates they have supported are far right wing candidates who have said during their campaigns that they will not vote for any bill that will increase the deficit. If the republicans win back the house (which they likely will) anywhere between 10 and 15 of those republicans who are elected will be tea party supported candidates. IF those candidates then follow through with what the say they will do, they will not vote for any bill that increases the deficit. This will be a thorn in the side of the new republican leadership because much of what they are going to want to pass will increase the deficit.
This guy has been pretty dead on with his predictions of who will win elections over the past several years. If his numbers are correct the republicans will end up with about 14 seat majority in the house. If 15 of those republicans are tea party supported candidates who won't vote for anything that increases the deficit, that majority might as well not exist because they won't have the numbers to pass anything unless they make sure it deficit neutral or they cut something in order to add this.
This all hinges, of course, on the actions of those tea party candidates. For all we know they could get into office and just ignore what they have said during their campaigns. So when you look at the numbers, it is all pretty simple.
Realistically though, it doesn't matter. Regardless of who wins control of the house and senate the majorities will most likely be so small that either side can cause the other trouble and both sides will be fighting to stop the other's agenda. After two straight years of nothing but "no" from the republicans you would assume the democrats (if now in the minority) would return the favor. Even if the republicans win both the house and senate the infighting will be so heavy that unless Obama really moves to the middle and works with the republicans they will do everything they can to lame duck him and weaken his chances of being reelected so there is a good chance that regardless of the outcome in november were are going to see nothing but gridlock in washington for the next two years.