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Old 10-17-2010, 02:39 PM  
snowpimp
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Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: South Lake Tahoe, CA
Posts: 1,099
Quote:
Originally Posted by signupdamnit View Post
- Assuming +25% per year (which seems about right)
- General Adult Traffic (Niched traffic will be about 50% - 80% of these ratios)
- Raw clicks to sponsors

2000- 1:200
2001- 1:250
2002- 1:313
2003- 1:391
2004- 1:488
2005- 1:610
2006- 1:763
2007- 1:954
2008- 1:1,192
2009- 1:1,490
2010- 1:1,863
2011- 1:2,328
2012- 1:2,910
2013- 1:3,638
2014- 1:4,547
2015- 1:5,684
2016- 1:7,105
2017- 1:8,882
2018- 1:11,102
2019- 1:13,878
2020- 1:17,347

Doesn't look like it's that much off based on past data and seems realistic for future data.

Thoughts?

I'd back those numbers up, they're obviously estimates but give or take a few hundred, this is pretty close to what I've experienced with targeted traffic over the last 10 years as well as what i've seen from the affiliate ratios i've looked at. I'd add a couple years:

1998: 1 in 30
1999: 1 in 60

I remember getting a dozen signups a day just off the hun


It's hard to predict the future but I'm thinking the scale might slow down a bit after 2017, there will always be some opportunities to convert people, your scale seems to fly off the charts after 2017
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