Quote:
Originally Posted by stocktrader23
You aren't taking into account dozens (thousands) of factors that affect ratios. Also, people will not just quit buying stuff. Things will shift as they always have and those still sticking to 15 year old business models on the internet will be left in the dust as is happening right now.
The funny part is that because affiliates are so hung up on the fat PPS payouts the programs we have now are too scared to offer anything that would convert better but leave less to share. This is one of the main reasons that all but a few programs will phase out affiliates all together.
|
It's only meant as an overall average and to show change over time. It will vary on many factor but overall the trend seems to be no fluke.
This isn't intended to be affiliate versus sponsor versus tube site. The change in conversions should affect everyone in the industry. More than likely similar trends will emerge for dating and cams as free alternatives and other factors emerge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowpimp
I'd back those numbers up, they're obviously estimates but give or take a few hundred, this is pretty close to what I've experienced with targeted traffic over the last 10 years as well as what i've seen from the affiliate ratios i've looked at. I'd add a couple years:
1998: 1 in 30
1999: 1 in 60
I remember getting a dozen signups a day just off the hun
It's hard to predict the future but I'm thinking the scale might slow down a bit after 2017, there will always be some opportunities to convert people, your scale seems to fly off the charts after 2017
|
Thanks for the back up. I started in late 1998 too and believe those numbers. I wish I still had access to my old ccbill accounts or kept better records on stats but it seems close.
The numbers go crazy as they increase because it compounds. 25% of 15,000 versus 25% of 200, etc. I hope shit doesn't get this bad either. If it does I can't see most people staying past 2012 when things start to almost double again from where they are. Most of the industry can't handle that. No way.