Quote:
Originally Posted by DamianJ
Again, why do you think they're lying? What benefit would it give them?
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yes, I can't imagine why someone selling some kind of service will lie about their own service
wait....
Now seriously, all the data we have coming from small and medium sized programs shows an average retraction for January and February of 15/20% compared to November/December which in turn had a retraction of close to 20% compared to previous 2 months. The retraction in sales comparing January/February 2010 to November/December 2010 was close to 45%.
granted that we don't have data from the big programs and we don't have data from any cam site, which could make a difference, but at the same time, smaller sites tend to have better ratios than bigger programs, so I think it's pretty safe to say those numbers aren't really far from reality.
But let's say we don't have any numbers to measure this. Let's use observation and logic on objective and freely available data:
1) Everything is available for free. And I mean EVERYTHING.
2) The new consumer markets have grown from people used to get everything for free, they're savvier than previous generation of internet consumers.
3) Most (if not all) adult companies are downsizing. Many of them are closing.
4) You can see people attached to different programs for years begging for work, you can see a new one almost every single day
5) the value of every single service (design, coding, scripting, marketing, traffic, etc) has hit an all time low since most webmasters can't pay or they find it really difficult to do it. And we're talking about sums ranging on the $200 to $2000.
6) affiliates are getting used to 1:10000 conversions when 2 years ago they would NEVER promote a sponsor with that CTR.
7) Global Economy recession: Porn could be less or more affected, but it's ridiculous to think that, not only it won't be affected negatively, but... it will grow! Sorry, but that goes against any and every marketing and economics law. There might be exceptions, but they're just that: EXCEPTIONS.
8) to n) add yours....
Now, I was having fun about Paycom in the first paragraph, it's possible they see more sales, maybe they've better clients, maybe they handle a lot of cams sites, maybe they're dealing more with mainstream, I don't know. I know last year they announced a plan to hire people that contemplates 4.5 million dollars in payroll in exchange of 2 millions tax rebate, which is pretty huge since that would mean they would grow their OK personnel by almost 500%, and if they did, they need to have good reasons for such payroll growth.
Anyway, Paycom or not Paycom, the adult business is shrinking in relative terms (to the very least), whether you like it or not, all objective and subjective data shows it. For every example you can show of someone growing, I can show you 100+ that are shrinking (if not disappeared)