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If all the evidence they have is scratch mark with no sign of sexual assault, then he was framed, if they find signs of sexual assault and DNA evidence, then he probably did it.
The French secret services are known for setting up people in similar ways, many past examples of rising "stars" who encountered untimely careers' end.
A lot of unanswered questions still, why would a guy who can pay for the best pussy money can buy, would resort to raping an hotel employee while his wife is waiting for him and he is late for a flight? If he was alone in NYC, then I could almost believe that he got tempted and lost it, but with his wife in the same city he does this?
For those who follow international politics, he's been the target of a character assassination campaign in France, the last thing was that he was seen driving a $100k+ Porsche in Paris, not very acceptable in France if you want to be the Socialist Party Presidential nominee. So it wouldn't surprise me a bit if he got framed. On the other hand, he is a known womanizer, something that is common in France, they're still finding illegitimate children to Mitterrand to this day!
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