Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMaxwell
If 1:100 children go missing, and in this program there are over 1,000,000 children and only two have ever been missing would it also be right that
A child not in the program is 5000 times more likely to go missing
AND
That a child is 99% less likely to go missing?
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Prob of Child Missing (not in program) = 1/100 = 0.01
Prob of Child in Program Missing = 2/1000000 = 1/500000 = 0.000002
Statement 1
Prob Child Missing/Prob of Child in Program Missing = 0.01 / 0.000002 = 5000
Statement 2
(Prob of Child in Program Missing/Prob Child Missing)*100 = (0.000002/0.01)*100 = 0.02%
The child within the program has only 0.02% the chance of going missing as the child not in the program, which means (100-0.02) = 99.98% less likely to go missing