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#1

Global Economic Crisis: What is the best options to keep your assets?

08-15-2007, 05:31 AM

I mean even a fool can see the writing on the wall.

Unlike hedge managers and other gamblers (with 3rd parties' money...) my few assets were won with hard work and I'd hate to see them turn to dust.

Which kind of people made it best during the 1929 Great Crash?
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#2

08-15-2007, 06:19 AM

Real Estate ;-)
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#3

08-15-2007, 06:25 AM

yeah real estate is a good one id think
as long as you can keep up with the taxman

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#4

08-15-2007, 06:43 AM

You guys would be buying real estate right now of all things?

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NTM

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#5

08-15-2007, 07:17 AM

Originally posted by Phoenix

yeah real estate is a good one id think
as long as you can keep up with the taxman

You must be kidding.

A couple of years ago someone on GFY wrote posts about how we would eventually see entire neighborhoods of abandoned $500,000 homes, stripped of their copper wire, and occupied by vagrants. It's already starting to happen in Vegas and Phoenix, and will spread across America in the near future.
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#6

08-16-2007, 02:14 AM

bump for more answers.. besides real estate.. which does NOT seem to be a good idea right now, to me.

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#7

08-16-2007, 02:20 AM

Gold and Metals.
Diamonds, rare art.

At this point I do not even think 10 Year bonds are worth a shit in 10 years.

Luckily mine matured last year...
So I am out of that shit.

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#8

08-16-2007, 02:22 AM

i agree that real state is the best option.................

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#9

08-16-2007, 02:25 AM

The people that made out best in the 1929 Crash believe it or not were farmers and food companies!

Pork Bellies to gold.

No matter wut people goto eat.

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#10

08-16-2007, 02:27 AM

trends, futures, they are the cautious investers target.
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#11

08-16-2007, 03:04 AM

not sure if gold is the best investment nowadays, the prices are already prety high

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#12

08-16-2007, 03:09 AM

Gold is the typical place to keep your money during a crisis. If you look at storical data the real buying power of gold as remained steady since Roman times more than 2000 years ago.

The problem with gold is that it's not productive, so in normal (non crisis) times you'll do much better with stocks, real estate or bonds (long term your purchase power will increase instead or remaining static).

Check out E-gold if you're interested in buying some gold easily.
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#13

08-16-2007, 03:12 AM

For me gold should be bought during the good times when rates are low and kept just for security purposes.

However as it was stated, Art, Stamps, Precious coins, so forth have always been safe bets.

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#14

08-16-2007, 03:15 AM

Place all your savings in a numbered Swiss bank account.

You will find depression opportunities when depression will be at your door, which is not the case yet.

Patience

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GreyWolf

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#15

08-16-2007, 03:40 AM

This thread is too damned funny

Real estate (least in the US) has just started to take a dive - and likely to dive for another few years. Great investment *lol*

Numbered Swiss Bank accounts do not exist - another myth
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#16

08-16-2007, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by GreyWolf

This thread is too damned funny

Real estate (least in the US) has just started to take a dive - and likely to dive for another few years. Great investment *lol*

Numbered Swiss Bank accounts do not exist - another myth

Nope, they still exist (http://www.offshore-fox.com/offshore...d-account.html The Swiss have kept the term numbered account, not least because it makes good marketing sense. But these days, a Swiss numbered account is never anonymous; Swiss banks are required by law to know the identities of account holders.).
BTW the thread starter doesn't need to remain anonymous, it's not the reason why i gave this example

Switzerland is a very stable place to keep its money in crisis times, world wars, depressions...

NTM: convert your worthless dollars.

Last edited by xmas13; 08-16-2007, 04:19 AM.

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#17

08-16-2007, 04:36 AM

Originally posted by RayBonga

Check out E-gold if you're interested in buying some gold easily.

In the event of market armageddon (in the US anyway), how safe is that service?
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#18

08-16-2007, 04:40 AM

Originally posted by xmas13

http://www.offshore-fox.com/offshore...d-account.html

not really a secrets-revealing article, but interesting nevertheless

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#19

08-16-2007, 04:45 AM

Originally posted by AlienQ

Gold and Metals.
Diamonds, rare art.

.

There's been a hellova runup in metals. maybe even a bubble. Copper has already increased in value 500% in 5 years.

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#20

08-16-2007, 04:47 AM

Originally posted by AlienQ

At this point I do not even think 10 Year bonds are worth a shit in 10 years.

How so? Buy TIPS if you are in the US. I think there are similar inflation indexed bonds in other countries if you don't want the dollar exposure.

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#21

08-16-2007, 04:48 AM

If you're long, dont panic and sell, just ride it out.

If you're a gambler, short housing and financials, but keep in mind, most are already at their 52 week lows and all of them have huge short interests.

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#22

08-16-2007, 04:50 AM

Here's an idea. Undervalued energy companies. See mcdep.com for some valuations based on reserves and cash flow. You can tweak the numbers yourself if you want to use different future values for oil and gas prices.

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#23

08-16-2007, 04:51 AM

Originally posted by SomeCreep

If you're long, dont panic and sell, just ride it out.

My opinion too. In fact, I'm buying.

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#24

08-16-2007, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by xmas13

Nope, they still exist (http://www.offshore-fox.com/offshore...d-account.html The Swiss have kept the term numbered account, not least because it makes good marketing sense. But these days, a Swiss numbered account is never anonymous; Swiss banks are required by law to know the identities of account holders.).
BTW the thread starter doesn't need to remain anonymous, it's not the reason why i gave this example

Switzerland is a very stable place to keep its money in crisis times, world wars, depressions...

NTM: convert your worthless dollars.

So.. basically the concept of the old "Swiss numbered bank account" does not exist and it is in effect bullshit. Agree?

So what you are saying is dump eg US dollars into a Swiss bank account and watch these dollars depreciate??
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#25

08-19-2007, 06:42 AM

bump........

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#26

08-19-2007, 06:58 AM

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#27

08-19-2007, 07:02 AM

The secret to surviving a recession is to be able to service your debts.

If you have no debts to speak of and a source of income, you should survive without much problem.
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#28

08-19-2007, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Redrob

The secret to surviving a recession is to be able to service your debts.

If you have no debts to speak of and a source of income, you should survive without much problem.

hmm, "surviving" isn't a problem, keeping your assets is...

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#29

08-19-2007, 08:44 AM

If you don't have any "arrears", you can keep your "assets".
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#30

08-19-2007, 10:12 AM

buy stocks that make staple products - toilet paper, food, toothbrushes etc.

try to steer clear of the USD...

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#31

08-19-2007, 12:02 PM

Fine Art has traditionally been a safe place people have put money in hard times throughout history.

PS: I'm in the process of opening up an art gallery.
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#32

08-19-2007, 12:16 PM

buy canadian oil trusts, they are on sale these days, paying around 15% dividends
You can be sure, that even in economic crises, OPEC wont let the price go down under 50 bucks per barrel.
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#33

08-19-2007, 12:42 PM

the sky is falling
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#34

08-20-2007, 12:22 PM

final bump 4 this thread

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#35

08-27-2007, 12:29 AM

Obviously US real estate and its (crooked) financing is at the root of the problem here (well, actually 'greed' is). Whoever says real estate is a safe haven is a fool, lol.
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#36

08-27-2007, 01:11 AM

US gold confiscation act of 1933

http://www.the-privateer.com/1933-go...fiscation.html

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#37

08-27-2007, 01:30 AM

For stocks: Just hold and wait if you didn't already sell...on a timescale of 10 or 20 years, this small down isn't mentionable and all this talk about a worldwide recession or big bang is a good indicator we have already seen the bottom.
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#38

08-27-2007, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by StarkReality

For stocks: Just hold and wait if you didn't already sell...on a timescale of 10 or 20 years, this small down isn't mentionable and all this talk about a worldwide recession or big bang is a good indicator we have already seen the bottom.

If these stocks are in the US market - best place is out of that market. Agree on a more long term view, but US markets have barely gained 3.5% over the last five years (18% net of inflation) and there is very little on the horizon to think the future will be different.

You can compare this with the Canadian market where gains have been 75% over the same five years (net of inflation). Same with other markets - Japan is 39%, UK is 64%, Germany is 30%.

But... on a postive side - if a US person had invested in eg the Canadian market during the last 5 year term, the gain is more significant. These folks would have had a total gain of 120% over that five year term when denominated in US dollars.
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#39

08-27-2007, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by teomaxxx

buy canadian oil trusts, they are on sale these days, paying around 15% dividends
You can be sure, that even in economic crises, OPEC wont let the price go down under 50 bucks per barrel.

Inclined to agree! There are also other natural resources which will command reasonable price levels in the future. In addition to Canada, similar prospects exist in "old Europe" and the Nordic countries along with the more developed Asian countries where currencies can be undervalued by up to 25%.
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#40

08-27-2007, 02:40 AM

Crap... badly expressed...

This

Agree on a more long term view, but US markets have barely gained 3.5% over the last five years (18% net of inflation) and there is very little on the horizon to think the future will be different.

should read

Agree on a more long term view, but US markets have barely gained 3.5%/year over the last five years (18% in total, net of inflation) and there is very little on the horizon to think the future will be different.
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#41

08-27-2007, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by GreyWolf

If these stocks are in the US market - best place is out of that market. Agree on a more long term view, but US markets have barely gained 3.5% over the last five years (18% net of inflation) and there is very little on the horizon to think the future will be different.

You can compare this with the Canadian market where gains have been 75% over the same five years (net of inflation). Same with other markets - Japan is 39%, UK is 64%, Germany is 30%.

But... on a postive side - if a US person had invested in eg the Canadian market during the last 5 year term, the gain is more significant. These folks would have had a total gain of 120% over that five year term when denominated in US dollars.

But the US market has done over 8% for a hundred years or so. You don't see many years or porr showing as an opportunity?
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#42

08-27-2007, 03:20 AM

Originally posted by NTM

I mean even a fool can see the writing on the wall.

Unlike hedge managers and other gamblers (with 3rd parties' money...) my few assets were won with hard work and I'd hate to see them turn to dust.

Which kind of people made it best during the 1929 Great Crash?

Seriously what writing are you seeing? The great crash was after a huge prosperous time.
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#43

08-27-2007, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by slapass

But the US market has done over 8% for a hundred years or so. You don't see many years or porr showing as an opportunity?

100 years is a longish time to be thinking of investment terms - we'll all be dead slapass

Not sure if I'm getting you - you mean "don't see many years of poor showing as an investment opp?" If so, no - not in the current situation.

There are too many other problems at the moment re the US economy - including high levels of debt where there is no hope in hell of starting to repay for .. dunno, but at least 10 years ahead. Not sure exactly, but the debt level is over 900 trillion and increasing daily on foreign borrowings of around $12-14 billion/day. Internally there are severe manufacturing problems - or a lack of manufacturing or product suitable for exports and the trade balance has never been postive for almost 40 years. Overall, there is a great reliance on foreign manufactured goods and that does nothing but more harm to trade balances - forgetting these goods are being purchased on credit and, at least currently, with a low dollar value.

Tho agree - a low dollar should encourage exports and this has been happening to a degree, but no where near a level to have any impact on the economy as a whole (It's back to the lack of "exportable goods") .

At the moment can only see the dollar declining further - not just on it's own account, but where other currencies are slowly rising due to natural cycles of increased production etc.

The current obvious problem with homes is probably not even started yet and a few other corps will be struggling (they are already) - as well as folks trying to pay mortgages. The effect of that is massive down the line and appears to influence almost 25% of the economy when you include everyone involved from developers to realtors to furniture/kitchen equipment suppliers etc.

There is also high levels of personal debt and this has been tightening over the last year. The tendency was to use credit cards for impulse purchases at malls etc. Cards are now being used to pay for basic living expenses - food, power and an element of paying off other debts/mortgages etc. So.. next on the hit list are going to be retailers. It's a vicious cycle.

The core problem is basically debt and probably followed on by a weak manufacturing base and a tendency to rely of foreign imports.

It would be a total guess, but overall smell what is being seen at the moment is only the tip of an iceberg in the distance - and a long way to go before hitting the bottom and this may take a good few years yet.
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#44

08-27-2007, 04:27 AM

If you're looking to make money, cash is key during a recession. The dollar will rise due to lower imports and you won't find the dollar for much cheaper than it is now. You'll want to clean up all debt beforehand and put some money away just in case (6 months to a year). Bonds tend to do well during recessions (junk bonds if you are risky), strong companies that will be around for a long time (Pepsi, Natural Gas, etc), and just keeping them in CDs and money market accounts that are short term.

The key to a recession is spotting the low point and buying. You'll be able to get homes dirt cheap, stocks cheap, and you'll make a fortune on the rise. There are a lot of people who made millions in the 90's after the recession. There are also a lot of people who made money on the Great Depression. Nonetheless, our economy is too diverse and regulated to fall into anything that bad. We'll have a nice recession and the smart ones will make money off it.

Last edited by pocketkangaroo; 08-27-2007, 04:28 AM.
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#45

08-27-2007, 04:30 AM

Originally posted by montel

buy stocks that make staple products - toilet paper, food, toothbrushes etc.

try to steer clear of the USD...

Why would you steer clear of the dollar during a recession? Recession is good for the dollar.
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#46

08-27-2007, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by AlienQ

Gold and Metals.
Diamonds, rare art.

At this point I do not even think 10 Year bonds are worth a shit in 10 years.

Luckily mine matured last year...
So I am out of that shit.

No way. The value of "Rare" stuff strictly depends on how many people with the money to buy it are around. Diamonds, art, etc are going to the shitter.

Ironically, your best bid is chinese/asian currency, bonds, etc.
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#47

01-05-2008, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

If you're looking to make money, cash is key during a recession. The dollar will rise due to lower imports and you won't find the dollar for much cheaper than it is now. You'll want to clean up all debt beforehand and put some money away just in case (6 months to a year). Bonds tend to do well during recessions (junk bonds if you are risky), strong companies that will be around for a long time (Pepsi, Natural Gas, etc), and just keeping them in CDs and money market accounts that are short term.

The key to a recession is spotting the low point and buying. You'll be able to get homes dirt cheap, stocks cheap, and you'll make a fortune on the rise. There are a lot of people who made millions in the 90's after the recession. There are also a lot of people who made money on the Great Depression. Nonetheless, our economy is too diverse and regulated to fall into anything that bad. We'll have a nice recession and the smart ones will make money off it.

I hate looking back on shit I wrote as my advice in this thread sucked ass but the above is really good.
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