There are so many false hopes and fears about this law, or the one that will be passed, that we need to look at it logically without blinkers.
1. The Internet needs regulating. Self regulating clearly hasn't worked and the Internet has become a place people are worried about using their CC, getting their information sold or stolen. AND a haven for scammers and thieves.
2. Pornography needs regulating. With no regulation CP, real rape movies and even snuff videos of people being sexually abused and then murdered are legal to publish. Generating profit for someone and it will result in more child abuse, rape and murder. There are people who will do this just for profit.
If the Government was serious about regulating online porn, there are far easier and better ways to do it.
3. It's only the Government who can pass these laws and regulate. There simply isn't anyone else.
4. We don't have a say. We adapt to the changes or we die. I adapted and even though I moan a lot. I still don't see the clock turning back and never ever in my wildest dreams thought I could effect any law.
Fears.
So will this bring about the complete demise of piracy? No but it will deal a huge blow to the profits from pirating. Piracy isn't about sharing, back up or any other excuse. For a few, it's about making money. For many it's about getting someone else to pay so they can get it for free or at a very reduced price.
Yes if you download stuff for free, expect things to change. You will have to decide if you want it enough to pay for it. It might even lead to the demise of iTunes. Without piracy, the market might change.
Will it bring down the Internet? Only the fools believe that. Will it give the Government control over the Internet? Might do, but seeing as they have control over everything else in our lives and we don't seem to suffer too much. Where's the harm? Assuming you're not doing something the Government disapprove of. If that's benefiting from piracy or fake drugs the law might hurt you.
Will innocent sites be caught up? This is something we need to wait and see. I see ways for someone who is innocent to get damages and his sites back if wrongly harmed. It will take a court case. Look closely at the wording of the law. It's about sites
dedicated to piracy. And
in the reasonable belief that;
(1) the Internet site is a foreign infringing site or is an Internet site dedicated to theft of U.S. property; and
(2) the action is consistent with the entity's terms of service or other contractual rights.
So an email or anonymous letter isn't going to cut it with an ISP. He will want proof to safe guard himself from getting sued. Immunity isn't carte blanche. If an ISP screws up, he's not immune. I expect them to want some real proof and take a look before bringing a site down.
Pirates will not be able to prove they are not pirates GG. So suck it up.
For most of us, life will go on and we will continue to make a living and enjoy the Internet.
Hopes.
Will the millions downloading free pirated porn flood back to buying? No, you can't change peoples culture, beliefs and attitudes that easily. Today people expect porn to be free the odds on them being forced to buy are longer than the odds of turning 1-1,000 Tube surfers into a paying customer.
So the traffic that enjoys free porn from Filesonic, will continue to get it from Pornhub. Just 2 examples for this graph.
How many people on Filesonic are downloading just porn? Not 100% for sure. 100% of the traffic on Pornhub is there for the free porn.
Expect Tubes traffic to soar. So how will they pay for the BW? We know the answer to that one. It doesn't cost enough to make a real difference.
How will they pay to make sure the content on Pornhub is mostly legal? They will buy, get more submitted for partners, submit more of their content. They have to keep up the free stuff to keep up the traffic. If they drop the free updates, the surfers go elsewhere.
How will they pay for it? Less pirates sites to get free porn on and less pirate sites to advertise on. Means one thing. More revenue for free Tubes.
So maybe a trickle of traffic will go to truly unique sites with "must have" content. The rest, they won't see a significant jump in ratios. They will be thankful for what ever they do get.
The only thing that will bring back the glory days of of ratios from the days when it was only Newsgroups and link lists. Is if the only free porn is Newsgroups and Link Lists. That will never happen, so the majority of the traffic will migrate to other free sites. They will profit. But no where near the ratios of the TGPs or the earliest days.
What ever, time will tell. This I know for sure.
We adapt to this law or we don't and get screwed.