01-02-2012, 04:09 PM
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Confirmed User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glamourmodels
Good luck with that...
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You pick an odd subject to respond to and emphasize.
Like I said, you need to be talking to the republicans, and refining your message to them. Bitching at people like me is a waste of your time.
http://www.truth-out.org/if-ron-paul...ory/1325514942
Quote:
A key fact about this development - largely missed by most media - is the extent to which it is driven by Democratic and independent voters planning to vote for Paul as a means of opposing endless war. While media may miss this story now, if election-night exit polls show antiwar Democrats and independents gave Paul the margin of victory, that story will appear in media around the world.
A survey published by Public Policy Polling on Sunday gave the following numbers:
Ron Paul: 23 percent
Mitt Romney: 20 percent
Newt Gingrich: 14 percent
But what was more interesting about the Public Policy Polling survey is what it revealed about who was planning to vote in the caucus for Paul:
Paul's base of support continues to rely on some unusual groups for a Republican contest. Among voters under 45 he's at 33 percent to 16 percent for Romney and 11 percent for Gingrich. Paul is also cleaning up 35-14 with the 24 percent of voters who identify as either Democrats or independents. Romney is actually ahead 22-19 with GOP voters.
So, according to this poll, if the Iowa caucus were restricted to "GOP voters," Romney would be narrowly ahead. But since Democrats and independents can vote, Paul is narrowly ahead.
If the election were held today, and this poll were predictive of the result, then exit polling would show that the margin of victory for Paul was provided by antiwar Democrats and independents. And that would be a key election-night story, on the front page and TV across the nation and around the world.
Note that if this result occurs, then it will be driven by the actions of roughly 8,400 people. Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post gives 100,000 as a rough expert consensus guesstimate of turnout. If 24 percent of those are Democrats and independents, that's 24,000 people. If 35 percent of those Democrats and independents support Paul at the caucus, that's 8,400 people.
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