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Old 01-04-2012, 07:20 AM  
raymor
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,745
Quote:
#1 is strong against #3 and #3 is strong against #2 and #2 is strong against #4 and #4 is strong against #1 You could trade #1 for #3 and then buy #2 with your #3 and then trade your #2 for #4 and then buy #1
It's called arbitrage. Yes, there is software to do it. Very good software that recognizes the splits and acts in milliseconds. There's not as much money to be made that way as you might think.

You're not the first person to think of it, obviously. Lots of people have thought of it, so as soon as an imbalance occurs people start buying and selling and in about one second things are brought into balance by the increased demand for the weaker currency. It's a race to get your transactions done while the imbalance exists. Because it's a race, people spend big money on systems to do it fast - fast computers, low latency communications links, etc.

Let's say there is a 0.01% split. Doing $10 million in transactions would net you $1 thousand. BUT your competitor can take that $1,000 if they are faster than you, so they spend another $500 on faster equipment, for a net gain of $500 on $10,000,000. You see that they are faster, so you spend $900 upgrading your equipment so that you can win the race and net $100. Congratulations, you've just made $100 on your $10,000,000. Oops, you didn't know about the faster guy in Florida. Your transactions were slower and you actually list $25. Welcome to the world of currency arbitrage. That competive pressure means the profits aren't huge.

To make it worth trying, you do want to use big numbers, buying and selling millions because otherwise you're only going to make pennies - not enough to pay for your equipment.

You can also see now why taking physical delivery wouldn't work at all. By the time the first few bills have been counted the guy down the street would have already done the trade electronically and the opportunity would be gone.

Although there's a lot of competition in currency arbitrage, the same principle can be applied elsewhere and I've done so successfully. In other areas it often involves an element of marketing as well - buy from someone who hasn't taken the time to market the thing well, then do the marketing to sell it to the person who really wants it and is willing to pay top dollar.

Last edited by raymor; 01-04-2012 at 07:23 AM..
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