Bill8

My solution? There is none. We prepare for the worst. Billions die. Maybe all.

We are not smart enough to have a solution.

This however is what will happen.

We will do nothing for another decade. Liquid fossil carbon fuels will become at forst significantly then drastically more expensive, and the planets economy will suffer. because we are burning the worst remnants of the petroleum, carbon output will increase dramatically.

By the end of the decade the weather will get noticeably worse on most parts of the planet as the climate heat engine starts to go into chaotic perturbation. Starvation, hugely increased costs, economic stresses, patchwork collapse of the economy is various areas, as our civilization starts to contract and, if we are lucky, is resilient enough to transform as it contracts.

many of us will be dumped by the economy, as unneeded workers.

Start of 2022 - people start getting pissed - the blame decade begins, but we still do nothing to slow carbon emissions, guaranteeing misery for the next 5 decades, and probably megadeath for the following 5. The blame decade will be characterised by water wars and civil wars and resource wars and religious wars.

Start of 2032 - at this point we wil start to have an idea of what the climate curve will look like - will the heatup be slow or fast, basically. Maybe we wlll start seriously talking about forming a planetary government, which is the only thing that has any chance at all of saving civilization as we know it.

But we will fail to form a planetary government. If we are lucky the multidecadal currents will speed up and we get a breather. I hope so.

2042 - Wars. Wars. Wars, the begining of the human dieback. We have burned most of the liquids and tars and the best coal - and cannot stop ourselves from starting to burn the bad coal. The planet will seperate into regions based on remaining fossil carbon reserves, with some regions doing their best with renewables, probably middle to southern europe, which is blessed by not having really significant fossil carbon holdings.

Thats about as far out as it makes sense to project it.

I'm looking forward to the blame decade. Should be one hell of a show.