Quote:
Originally Posted by Robbie
What the fuck are you talking about?
The discussion is about drilling for oil and whether it can effect price. My observation is that several huge oil finds have been made and it can.
This isn't 1910. They don't have to "drill first" to make finds. Technology is far more advanced than that.
Is it really so hard for you to use google or watch the news before making a comment in a discussion?
As for your dumbass comment about "bad gubmint"...yes, the government did it's due diligence...but that took SIX years (if you just use google or watch CNN today you would be informed).
Some of you guys are so much in denial that it's scary.
I said that there are new huge oil finds ready to be recovered. Some folks on here deny that. I give examples. They still deny it.
Then I wake up this morning and it's all over the news that they drilled the pilot hole yesterday on one of the biggest oil finds.
And some people STILL are in denial of it.
It's hard to discuss the OP's topic when folks like you are trolling it with ignorance of what's going on TODAY.
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Ok so you're just fucking totally clueless. I research petroleum geology for fun (and profit). This is my wheelhouse. I've had people who have worked for oil companies ask me for MY advice.. Shut the fuck up and listen to someone who actually knows what they're talking about
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1. That's not an oil find. They haven't found anything. They haven't proven there is anything there. The only thing that proves oil is there is a drillbit.
2. The USGS/EIA/MMS provides estimates for what might be there by looking at the geology. It's a government function to do base working up of an area to get private companies interested in drilling to find out what's actually there. That doesn't mean it's there. No one knows if it is. It's just a big guess with certain probabilities of it being right in certain ranges. I just looked up the report, that's a mean figure, meaning there is a 50% chance it could be that figure. It could be only 2 billion (95% chance of at least this much). Seriously we're talkling +/- 30billion barrels ona roll of the dice. Thats how oil exploration works. There might be a lot, there might be a little bit, there might be none. The last 5 drills in the area were dusters and the whole industry gave up on it as too hard in the 90's.
I've currently got money on a drill that will START to prove up a 229tcf EIA
estimate It could be completely worthless or it could be worth an unimaginable amount. No one knows. If they had super magical xray vision like you think they do I wouldn't have been able to buy in at a $100m mkt cap. (Because if they knew oil was there it would be reflected in the price, which is isn't currently, as everyone who actually knows what the fuck they're talking about knows these estimates don't actually mean anything until they're drilled)
3. That's a regional estimate, it's not a big field this drill will find. There might be 100 prospects each a couple of hundred million barrels, each one capable of being empty.
4. There is NO, I fucking repeat NO technology that lets you know whether oil is there or not before you drill. There are roughly half a dozen different technologies used to try and find out which drills are the most likely to succeed but even on the most modern 3d seismic, several DHIs and oil seep surveys it's still a 10-25% success chance on a wildcat drill.
Companies spend 100 million bucks on a drill knowing the most likely outcome is failure. Look at Chariot TODAY with Nimrod. Another multi billion barrel "find" down the drain even with the magic xray glasses you think they have.
LOL @ the idea "They don't have to "drill first" to make finds." hah there is almost no way to describe exactly how retarded that is. I've watched you say some ignorant stuff before and haven't really said anything as you're not some kid being a dick, you've got a site and it works and I give most real webmasters some level of respect, but this is too much. You don't know how foolish the stuff you're saying is and I don't give a shit that it's not nice to point it out. If you're going to get up on the dinner table and squeeze out a fat turd while everyone's eating I'm not going to try and stare at my food and ignore it while you smile blankly, proud of your effort.
5. Shell says that best case scenario moving forward they'll be producing 1.8 million bbls a day from the area in 2030. Good luck with that much making a difference in 17-18 years of compound growth.
6. The article you posted previously clearly stated a glut of oil in America won't take the price at the pump down past $3 as there are production cost floors. The might be a glut of oil, but it's a glut of EXPENSIVE OIL. If you can't even comprehend the articles you post how can you expect people to even take you seriously? Shouldn't that be a clue to step back and do some book learnin' before piping up?
Anyways, just a note to stop spouting off on stuff you have demonstrated you have no clue about and people like me won't have to get annoyed at how misinformed you are. I don't know why it's so hard for you to go "Ok looks like I don't know shit, I'll shut up until I know what i'm talking about." I Look forward to you completely brushing off and misdirecting this post though. I can only bring a horse to water, it's your pride at being so thirsty that is galling.
Fucking. Dunning. Kruger.