The national poll aside (which has Obama at a slight lead) the electoral college map shows a huge advantage for Obama.
Obama basically has to win his strong and likely states and that will give him 241 electoral votes. If he then wins Florida he wins the election. If he loses Florida he can win any number of different combinations of states and still win.
Romney's strong and likely states only give him 191 electoral votes. He will need to win pretty much all of the battleground states in order to win and that is a very tall order to fill.
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