Quote:
Originally Posted by kane
I have no idea how much we are willing to spend or how far we are willing to go, but I think one of the main goals of our country is to try to play the long game, wait out the old leadership and hope the youth of Iran is more reasonable.
60% of Iran's population is under 30 years old. Many of these people are much less radical religiously than their elders. The hope is that over the next 10-15 years as this huge group comes to power they will make Iran a more open society that is willing to be reasonable in dealing with WMDs and nuclear power.
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Thats what I expected you thought - obstruction is cost effective, military action may not be cost effective for the nation; but it would make some people - those who benefit from a sharply increased price of oil - pretty happy.
Another military adventure could easily happen - but - it will cost us, and my estimate of another 4-5 trillion could be way too low.
What happens if the israelis act on their own - well - that's much more difficult to model out, and it depends on wether (and how much) we get drawn into defending israel.
Military action would make for some great television.