Quote:
Originally Posted by woj
I don't necessarily agree with your claim, over the past decade, unemployment was always <10%... I don't see any reason why next decade would be much different...You pointed out earlier in the thread that some jobs are now gone... sure, we no longer have bank tellers, but now we have webmasters, we no longer have "Street Light / Exterior Electrician", but now we have satelite dish installers... we have fewer check out clerks, but we have more computer repairmen... etc Those that are willing to retrain, have a job now and will have a job in the future...  |
Take any bank branch as a simple example. You used to have many tellers, some supervisors, loan officers, mortgage brokers, underwriters, etc etc etc in every branch.
What you have now are a few ATMs, a few very very low level 'suits', a branch manager at each branch and a 'back office' that they all call on the phone with pretty much any question more complex than 'what is my current balance.' You have 1/100th the number of people in good paying 'tier 2' careers and a cheaper 'face time' staff at each branch.
There was a great Sopranos episode where the crew tried to shake down a box store for protection money and the 'manager' explained they don't have any cash, access to any cash and are unable to make any decisions. He also didn't care if they broke windows or burnt the place down because it isn't his store anyway. The 'new jobs' are fixing things that are broken, reporting info up the food chain and acting as a greeter. They are replacing actual careers which are now either automated or brought 'in house' to the 'corporate office' where 1/10th of the people are needed to do them. We are creating new low end jobs and shrinking the number of high end jobs.
You can have 100000000 of people making next to nothing at a call center (often outside the United States), have an automated system answer most calls and allow rare calls up to a tiny tier2 staff instead of paying many people to actually know what they are doing and do it well.
It is a simple fact that less 'labor' is needed to get things done. Less people are needed to get 'everything' done. We are more efficient, we automate more and that pace is quickly accelerating.
Most people don't even go to the bank anymore at all. Direct deposit, iphone apps that let you take a photo of your checks, wire transfers, Paypal, credit cards, online banking... how often do you visit an actual bank? How many people are needed to manage all of that? Almost none compared to what it used to be.