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From an SEO perspective, I don't think it would really make that much difference - your content is way more important if you are just starting out. Honestly, I would register both and start by developing the .com and using the .to (or whatever) as a redirect. Shortened URLs are most valuable as marketing tools.
Having said that, I have more than a few domains that are non-standard TLDs because the .com version wasn't available and I wouldn't hesitate to develop those. Google is smart enough to figure it out.
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