View Single Post
Old 12-27-2012, 05:51 PM  
Mutt
Too lazy to set a custom title
 
Mutt's Avatar
 
Industry Role:
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 34,431
Quote:
Originally Posted by woj View Post
1. you pick a door, 1/3rd of the time it's a winner... 2/3rds it's not...
2a. IF the chosen door is a winner (1/3rd chance) and you switch = you lose
2b. IF the chosen door is not a winner (2/3rd chance) and you switch = you win

so by using the "switching" strategy, you win 2/3rds of the time...
wtf - it makes no sense. there are 3 doors - one's been opened and has no car behind it.
now you have two doors left, you having picked one already is meaningless, each door has the same chance of having the car behind it so switching your choice from your first arbitrary one shouldn't increase your odds at all.

obviously i'm wrong but i still don't see it.
__________________
I moved my sites to Vacares Hosting. I've saved money, my hair is thicker, lost some weight too! Thanks Sly!
Mutt is offline   Share thread on Digg Share thread on Twitter Share thread on Reddit Share thread on Facebook Reply With Quote